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(Kitco News) – The global foreign exchange market is in turmoil right during what can be the historically turbulent months of September and October for the stock and financial markets. The strength of the US dollar (the USDX is at a 20-year high), a sharp depreciation in the British pound (record low against the dollar) and a sharply weakening Chinese yuan are all making for instability in the currency markets—especially for the secondary, or smaller, currencies, whose countries’ foreign debt structures are many times based on the value of the US dollar.
Noted Morgan Stanley market analyst Mike Wilson this week said the rising value of the US dollar is “untenable” and that history shows such appreciation by the greenback can cause a financial market crisis. Metals traders and all traders need to keep a closer eye on the daily action in the FOREX market.
Importantly, continued volatile currency markets would have a bigger impact on the general marketplace and create still keener risk aversion, for at least the near term. The gold and silver markets could catch a better safe-haven bid if the FOREX market continues to gyrate in volatile fashion and a contagion effect grips the general marketplace. In this scenario, gold and silver would likely see solid price gains on safe-haven demand even if the US dollar index and US Treasury yields continue to rise.
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